By Helal Mohiuddin
In 1986, a mass coup occurred in the Philippines, much like the situation in Bangladesh in 2024. The corrupt authoritarian ruler, Ferdinand Marcos, and his family were forced to flee to Hawaii. First Lady Imelda Marcos was particularly reviled, and during their downfall, she became infamous for her extravagant shoe collection. Imelda owned thousands of pairs of luxury shoes, a symbol of the Marcos family’s opulence, which was widely covered by international media.
Given the intense public outrage and hatred toward the Marcos family, it was widely believed that they would never return to Philippine politics. Some now speculate that the Awami League in Bangladesh could follow a similar path to the Muslim League in Pakistan, but this is a flawed comparison. Today, Ferdinand and Imelda’s son, Bongbong Marcos, serves as the President of the Philippines, despite an outstanding U.S. arrest warrant for both him and his mother due to their failure to pay $353 million for crimes against humanity.
In 2009, Alfred McCoy edited a book titled An Anarchy of Families: State and Families in the Philippines. While reading it, one might draw parallels between Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina and Ferdinand Marcos, speculating that Sheikh Hasina aims to surpass Marcos’ legacy of corruption. English sayings like “Power corrupts” come to mind in this context.
The billions of dollars smuggled abroad by Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos began being used as early as 1987. Imelda returned to politics within five years, largely due to her financial power. By 2019, she had served as an elected member of parliament on four occasions. Corruption was the key to her political revival, which was achieved in four main ways: (1) returning to the country under the guise of facing justice, (2) legitimizing her re-entry into politics, (3) re-establishing connections with corrupt bureaucrats and military officials left behind, and (4) bribing influential policymakers to pave the way for her political comeback.
A similar pattern unfolded in Haiti when dictator Jean Bertrand Aristide was ousted in the face of public revolt in 1991. He returned to power in just three years, for the same reasons as the Marcoses—corruption, international complicity, and U.S. support. Awami League appears to be heading in a similar direction. Sajib Wazed Joy, Sheikh Hasina’s son, recently hired a Singapore-based lobbying firm, Strike Global Diplomacy, to influence U.S. policymakers, signaling a similar use of financial and political influence.
It is well-known that the Awami League has allegedly smuggled Tk 150 billion out of Bangladesh over the last sixteen years. A former state minister stated in an interview that Sheikh Hasina “used to make money with both hands.” The scope of corruption within the party is reportedly staggering, as is the personal wealth amassed by its leaders and members. News of these financial exploits has been so overwhelming that readers are often left in disbelief about how so much could be stolen and embezzled in such a short period.
Money has a powerful influence, and it is possible that the Awami League could attempt a return to Bangladeshi politics using the wealth they’ve accumulated abroad, in a manner similar to Imelda Marcos. Historical examples abound: Panama’s Noriega and Peru’s Fujimori were close to returning to power after exile, and Tunisia’s Ben Ali made extensive efforts to re-enter politics from exile in Saudi Arabia. These ex-leaders leveraged mafia economies and networks to retain influence over their countries’ political landscapes, despite their personal downfalls. However, Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir, ousted in 2019, failed to regain power due to his limited financial corruption compared to others.
The return of Imelda Marcos was facilitated by the death of Ferdinand in 1989, which generated public sympathy. Similarly, in Bangladesh, the Awami League recently posted on its official Facebook page that it would “fight another war if necessary.” This declaration raises the question: is the Awami League preparing to fight against the people of Bangladesh or other democratic forces? With an election on the horizon, Sajib Wazed Joy’s approval of the army chief’s announcement of elections within 18 months further complicates matters. The party appears to be preparing for elections, yet the war-like rhetoric leaves many to wonder if they are preparing for something more sinister, possibly using their financial might to influence outcomes or trigger conflict.
Social media users speculate that the party might be preparing to “fight against Bangladesh for India.” Conspiracy theorists suggest that the Awami League is waging daily battles on multiple fronts—whether it’s through disinformation campaigns, repression of minorities, or even fostering civil unrest. The declaration of war could indicate an intention to spark a broader conflict within Bangladesh.
While conspiracy theories should be taken with caution, there are valuable lessons to be drawn from the examples of fallen dictatorships worldwide. One key lesson is that dismissing the Awami League’s rhetoric or sudden aggressive stance could be dangerous. In many countries, mafias linked to former dictatorships have exerted influence from exile. Examples from Mexico, Colombia, Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria show that criminal syndicates often control political outcomes long after a regime has fallen. In Pakistan, a corrupt government has returned to power, while in India, Dubai-based underworld figures continue to influence parts of Indian politics.
It is unclear what political reforms the interim government in Bangladesh will pursue, but one thing is clear: rooting out the influence of mafia-like structures in politics must be a top priority to ensure that Bangladesh does not fall victim to the same fate as other nations plagued by corruption and political violence.
— Helal Mohiuddin, Professor at North South University, currently Visiting Professor at Montclair State University, New Jersey, USA
Source: আওয়ামী লীগের ‘আরেকটি যুদ্ধ’ ঘোষণাকে কোন চোখে দেখব? (prothomalo.com)
