The Syrian conflict remains one of the most devastating and complex crises of the 21st century. To understand its roots and its eventual resolution in 2024, it is essential to trace its origin to the Arab Spring of 2010, delve into the geopolitical maneuvers of regional and global powers, and uncover the intricate sectarian dynamics that shaped its trajectory.
The Arab Spring: Seeds of Discontent
The Arab Spring began in 2010, sparked by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia, protesting oppressive governance. This act of defiance triggered widespread movements across the Arab world. While the uprising in Tunisia was spontaneous, events in Egypt and Syria reflected deeper, orchestrated efforts by external powers. The United States and Israel, wary of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s attempts to establish civilian succession through his son, sought to restore military dominance in the country. By covertly supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, the U.S. and its allies catalysed unrest, ultimately pushing Mubarak out and ensuring military leadership remained intact.
Syria, however, appeared initially immune to the wave of protests. But in February 2011, graffiti scrawled by children in Deraa—mocking President Bashar al-Assad—unleashed a chain of events that spiralled into chaos. Assad’s brutal retaliation, involving the arrest and torture of the children, provoked public outrage. Calls for their release quickly evolved into protests against the regime itself. Instead of offering reconciliation, Assad ordered security forces to open fire, igniting a nationwide uprising.
Assad’s Iron Grip and the Descent into War
What followed was a decade of unrelenting brutality. Assad’s regime waged war on its people, with indiscriminate bombings, chemical weapons attacks, and systematic torture becoming hallmarks of his rule. Sednaya Prison, infamous for its inhumane conditions, became a symbol of his regime’s cruelty. Over 14,000 prisoners were tortured to death, and half of Syria’s population was displaced, resulting in the most significant refugee crisis since World War II.
Yet, despite initial setbacks, Assad clung to power, bolstered by key alliances. Russia and Iran emerged as his principal backers, with Moscow providing military might and Tehran offering ideological and financial support. The motives of these allies, however, extended beyond loyalty. Russia sought to maintain its strategic foothold in the region, particularly its naval base in Latakia. Iran, on the other hand, saw Assad, an Alawite (a branch of Shia Islam), as a key ally in its broader struggle against Sunni dominance and Western influence.
The Role of Sectarianism
Understanding Assad’s survival requires a closer examination of the sectarian dynamics at play. The Alawite sect, to which Assad belongs, represents an offshoot of Shiism with beliefs considered extreme by many mainstream Shia and Sunni Muslims. Historically marginalized, the Alawites gained prominence under French colonial rule and consolidated power during Hafez al-Assad’s reign. Bashar al-Assad’s reliance on this minority for support further entrenched sectarian divides, pitting Alawites and their Shia allies against the predominantly Sunni opposition.
Shia Islam itself encompasses a wide spectrum, ranging from the moderate Zaidis of Yemen to the Twelvers of Iran and the more esoteric Ismailis and Alawites. Twelvers, the largest group, consider Alawite beliefs unorthodox, yet political expediency often overrides theological differences.
The Shiite belief system faced a significant challenge when the 11th Imam, Hasan al-Askari, died without any children. Since the doctrine of Shiism relies on the continuance of the Imamate, his death created a crisis of succession that led to widespread fragmentation within the Shiite community. To resolve this dilemma, mainstream Twelver Shiites introduced the concept of the 12th Imam, Al-Mahdi. They claimed he was the hidden son of Hasan al-Askari, born to a Roman slave girl secretly married to the Imam. According to this belief, the child’s existence was kept hidden, even from al-Askari’s mother and brother.
The 11th Imam, Al-Askari, was said to have been born in Medina in 848 CE and later brought to the garrison town of Samarra to live with his father, Ali al-Hadi the 10th Shiite Imam. Al-Askari succeeded his father in 868 CE as the 11th Imam. Closely monitored by the Abbasid caliphs, both Ali al-Hadi and Hasan al-Askari lived under what was effectively house arrest, limiting their political and religious activities. Al-Askari died young at the age of 22, with Shiite accounts claiming the Abbasid Caliph al-Mu’tamid poisoned him, though official records attribute his death to illness. Al-Mu’tamid’s interest in monitoring al-Askari during his illness and sending physicians to treat him was seen by Shiites as an effort to confirm whether he had an heir.
As Hasan Al-Askari died without an heir apparent, the lack of a clear successor caused significant fragmentation among the Shiite community, splintering into over 20 sects. Some believed the Imamate had ended with al-Askari, while others upheld the idea that he would return as the eschatological Mahdi. Groups like the Waqifiyya believed al-Askari would re-emerge. In contrast, others turned to alternate candidates such as Muhammad ibn al-Hadi or Ja’far ibn al-Hadi, both brothers of al-Askari. Meanwhile, Twelver Shiites maintained that al-Askari had a hidden son, Al-Mahdi, who went into occultation and would return as the prophesied Mahdi.
This belief was propagated by Uthman al-Amri, who claimed to be the direct representative (or “door”) of the hidden Imam. Uthman later appointed his son, Abu Ja’far Muhammad ibn Uthman, as his successor. This period, known as the Minor Occultation (al-Ghaybat al-Sughra), lasted for about 70 years and ended in 329 CE with the death of the fourth and final representative, Abu al-Hasan Ali ibn Muhammad al-Samarri. According to Shiite tradition, Al-Mahdi then entered the Major Occultation, which continues to this day.
Among the various Shiite sects that emerged after the death of the 11th Imam, was the Nusayriyya. According to Shiite sources such as Al-Rijal, Muhammad ibn Nusayr was dismissed by Imam al-Hadi due to his extreme and deviant beliefs, including exaggerations about the Imams. During the Minor Occultation, Nusayr claimed to be a special deputy of Al-Mahdi, but the Imam’s close companions rejected this. After his dismissal, he declared himself a prophet and eventually a deity, promoting beliefs in reincarnation and extreme veneration of Imam al-Hadi as divine.
The Nusayriyya renamed themselves Alawites in 1920. Though traditionally dismissed by mainstream Shiites as Ghulat (extremists), they were re-integrated into the broader Shiite fold after the Iranian Revolution in 1980. This acceptance was largely attributed to the political strategy of the Iranian regime, which sought to expand its influence in Western Asia. Iran’s support for Assad highlights this pragmatism, as Tehran prioritised its geopolitical agenda over sectarian purity.
The Fall of Assad: The end of Tyranny
In November 2024, the tide turned decisively against Assad. Rebel groups, long divided by ideological and territorial disputes, unified under Turkish mediation. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan played a pivotal role, leveraging grievances over Assad’s support for Kurdish separatists to rally opposition forces. This unexpected coalition swiftly won, toppling Assad in just 12 days.
Turkey’s actions were not undertaken in isolation. Russia and Iran, previously staunch supporters of Assad, appeared to acquiesce to his removal. Russia bogged down in Ukraine and had already scaled back its operations in Syria, focusing on maintaining its Latakia base. Iran, grappling with economic woes and internal dissent, seemingly struck an agreement with Turkey, prioritising its internal stability over Assad’s survival.
The worst secret of Asad
In the aftermath of Assad’s fall, startling revelations have come to light. Over 1,000 fighters from Gaza’s Qassam Brigades, previously presumed dead, were discovered alive in Sednaya Prison. This raises unsettling questions about Assad’s alliances and the extent of Iranian complicity. Why did Zionist forces, often at odds with Assad, repeatedly intervene to prop up his regime? Was there a covert understanding to use Syria as a pawn in broader geopolitical games?
Russian thinker Alexander Dugin suggested a broader, more ominous plan in his analysis. He highlighted the overlapping crises in Syria and Palestine, predicting a Zionist push to demolish the Al-Aqsa Mosque and construct the Third Temple. Such provocations, Dugin argued, would unify the Islamic world against Western hegemony, reshaping global politics.
Lessons and Legacies
The Syrian conflict underscores the perils of authoritarianism, the devastating impact of sectarianism, and the far-reaching consequences of foreign intervention. Assad’s regime exemplified the lengths to which leaders will go to retain power, regardless of the human cost. It also highlighted the duplicity of international actors, who often prioritize strategic interests over humanitarian concerns.
As Syria begins to rebuild, the world must grapple with the legacies of this conflict. For the millions of displaced Syrians, the path to recovery will be long and arduous. Yet, with Assad’s departure, there is hope for a more inclusive and democratic future. Whether this hope is realized depends on the ability of Syrians and the international community to address the deep-seated divisions and traumas that fuelled the war.
