The ultimate destination of Sheikh Hasina following her departure from Bangladesh remains uncertain. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has clarified that India will not serve as Sheikh Hasina’s final refuge if she seeks temporary asylum there.
According to Jaishankar, Sheikh Hasina requested “temporary” entry into India on short notice.
Her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, has stated that she is not seeking asylum in any country.
So, where might Sheikh Hasina go next?
Will Western countries such as Britain or the United States offer her political asylum?
Experts suggest that the decision will depend on how these countries perceive the situation.
Challenges of Securing Western Asylum
Tom Keene, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, has indicated to BBC Bangla that obtaining political asylum in Western countries would be exceptionally challenging for Sheikh Hasina and might even be unattainable.
Recent reports suggest that Sheikh Hasina had urged the police and military to employ even greater force in the final stages, but this was not feasible.
Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, believes that securing asylum in any Western country would be very difficult for Sheikh Hasina.
He noted that Western nations have been deeply troubled by recent events during Sheikh Hasina’s administration, particularly in recent days.
Kugelman commented, “The use of excessive force against peaceful protesters and the repressive actions of Sheikh Hasina’s government have drawn significant criticism from Western countries.”
“This poses a serious concern for Sheikh Hasina, as many of her family members reside in Western countries. Nations that may not typically focus on human rights issues might offer her asylum, potentially in a non-Western country or a Gulf state,” he added.
International human rights organizations and the United Nations Human Rights Council have condemned the security forces’ actions during the student protests. Despite this, the Sheikh Hasina government continued its use of force.
Tom Keene remarked, “She sought to remain in power by increasing the number of casualties.”
Keene also noted that if the International Criminal Court investigates recent developments in Bangladesh and initiates legal proceedings, it could alter the situation. In such a case, even if she were in Britain, her safety could be compromised.
Historical Context for Dictators Seeking Asylum
Historically, when dictators lose power, they often seek asylum abroad to avoid punishment, imprisonment, or personal danger. This option becomes particularly appealing to escape public backlash.
Professor Abdel Escriba Folch of Barcelona University and Professor Daniel Kramer of Northeastern University have researched the destinations of ousted dictators. Their findings reveal that since World War II, fleeing the country has been a common choice for dictators, with around 20% opting for exile.
Such exiles have sometimes played a role in conflict resolution.
For instance, Ugandan dictator Idi Amin fled to Libya in 1979 as rebels and Tanzanian forces approached Kampala, later finding refuge in Saudi Arabia.
Similarly, Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos fled to Hawaii with American assistance amid public protests in 1986.
Haitian dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier sought asylum in France following his ousting by a popular uprising.
In these cases, power transitions occurred through elections or other means. The situation might have been different if such opportunities were not available.
During the Arab Spring of 2011, the scenarios differed. The protests led to the downfall of long-standing leaders such as Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who fled to Saudi Arabia and later died there.
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak faced 18 days of protests before being forced to relinquish power. Unable to flee, he was eventually sentenced to life imprisonment, although his sentence was later overturned.
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi faced a more violent end. During the Arab Spring, his excessive force led to a civil war, resulting in his capture and death by rebels.
Iranian leader Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, deposed by the Islamic Revolution in 1979, sought refuge in Egypt but faced severe challenges.
In the case of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, he was ousted by the military and faced potential death sentences. However, due to intervention from US President Bill Clinton and Saudi King Abdullah, he was sent to Saudi Arabia.
Source: BBC