Analysts are highlighting the significant challenges that the newly formed interim government in Bangladesh will face. Following a mass student-led movement that escalated into widespread protests, an authoritarian government has been ousted, but the path forward is fraught with difficulties.
On Monday, Sheikh Hasina resigned as Prime Minister and left the country. Yesterday, a new government was formed under the leadership of 84-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. The interim government is expected to confront five major challenges:
1. Military Influence
The interim government is under civilian leadership, but the extent of military control remains unclear. Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center, suggests that while not formally part of the government, the military is likely to wield significant influence. He warns that if the interim government’s tenure extends, the military might consolidate its authority, although current indications suggest the military is less interested in playing an active role than it was in previous decades.
2. Law and Order
The recent protests have resulted in the deaths of over 400 people. Since Sheikh Hasina’s departure, there have been retaliatory attacks on her allies, and human rights groups and diplomats have raised concerns about violence against minority communities. Amnesty International’s Smriti Singh emphasized that the interim government’s first priority should be to ensure the safety of citizens, protect freedom of speech, and prevent further violence. Political scientist Professor Ali Riaz believes that if law enforcement agencies remain impartial and support the government, the situation could stabilize quickly.
3. Economy
Since 2009, Bangladesh has enjoyed an average annual growth rate of over 6%. In 2021, Bangladesh surpassed India in per capita income, yet economic inequality persists, with the benefits of growth unevenly distributed. The recent unrest has severely impacted the country’s garment sector, with factories closing during the violence. Bangladesh, home to around 3,500 garment factories, relies on this sector for nearly 85% of its $55 billion annual exports. The country is the second-largest market for the world’s top apparel retailers, but recent turmoil has led some companies, such as the U.S.-based Hula Global, to shift orders to other countries.
4. Elections
The January election that saw Sheikh Hasina secure her fifth term as Prime Minister was widely viewed as illegitimate, with major opposition parties boycotting the vote. According to Thomas Kean, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, the student protests gained widespread support partly because Bangladesh has not held a competitive election in 15 years. The interim government must begin the long-term work of restoring democracy, as the democratic situation in the country has significantly deteriorated in recent years. Kugelman adds that critical questions remain unanswered, such as the duration of the interim government, the timing of the next election, and who will be eligible to participate.
5. Justice
The future of Bangladesh’s law and order will depend heavily on the police and military, who were unable to quell the protests. Following the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the police chief and a senior military officer have been dismissed. Political prisoners and arrested protestors are being released. Gwen Lewis, the UN Resident Coordinator in Bangladesh, expressed hope that the interim government would establish a new governance structure that earns public trust and holds the government accountable. Thomas Kean from the Crisis Group notes that the new government must undertake credible investigations and ensure appropriate legal actions for the tragic events that have occurred in recent times.