David Bergman on X analyzes the current precarious state of the regime in Bangladesh under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League, highlighting several key factors:
- Escalating Violence: The government’s violent crackdown on civilians has resulted in at least 155 confirmed deaths, with local observers suggesting the actual number may be significantly higher. The student movement has shifted focus from quotas to addressing state violence.
- Loss of Public Support: The Awami League’s ability to maintain peace and stability, despite its authoritarian tendencies, was a key reason for its public support. However, the recent violence undermines this rationale, making it unlikely the party can continue to claim legitimacy.
- Internet Shutdown: The government’s recent shutdown of the internet aims to curb the spread of images and news of state violence and to disrupt protest organization. However, this is unsustainable due to the economic dependence on internet connectivity.
- Potential Backlash: Once the internet is restored, a flood of critical posts and media coverage is expected, intensifying public outrage against the government.
- Curfew and Military Involvement: The government’s imposition of a curfew and deployment of the army has temporarily quelled protests, but this measure cannot last indefinitely. The eventual lifting of the curfew is likely to reignite protests.
- Sustainable Governance: Recurrent cycles of violence and suppression are unsustainable. If the government allows peaceful protests, it risks being overwhelmed. Continued violence will force more drastic measures like curfews and military deployment.
- Resistance to Resignation: The Awami League, characterized as authoritarian and violent, is unlikely to voluntarily resign. The lack of a strong independent civil society entity capable of compelling the government to step down exacerbates the situation.
- Military Intervention: The possibility of the army intervening grows as the government’s position becomes untenable. Although the army’s leadership is loyal to the Awami League, escalating chaos might force them to take control and potentially facilitate free elections.
- Historical Resilience: Sheikh Hasina has historically managed to navigate through various crises, earning a reputation for political resilience. However, the current crisis, largely self-inflicted, presents an unprecedented challenge requiring extraordinary political acumen to overcome.
Bergman concludes that the political landscape in Bangladesh is on the verge of significant upheaval, with the potential for military intervention and a shift towards free elections if the government continues on its current path.
